Not a Good Year for Dictators

The international relations nerd in me totally reared its head once I found out Kim Jong Il had died. The play by play can be found here. I'm sure all the people in my graduate program are talking about it like normal people talk about football on Sunday. Even before the breaking news, what would happen to the Korean peninsula was a hot topic of discussion. Stock markets in Asia are all in the red. Nikkei, Straits Times, Hang Seng. No one knows what's going to happen. I'm sure the North Korean leadership itself doesn't even know what's going to happen. What's the US going to say? How's China going to react? What's South Korea's next move going to be? You can't really rule out any scenario, though I do think there are some situations that are less likely than others. I think the first thing the South Korea government is going to do is make sure all the defensive bases are covered--protecting against threats like cyber attacks, military attacks, and pretty soon, managing the potential refugee crisis. China is probably worried about the same thing. Actually China's probably super nervous right now. With all the toppling of dictatorships this year, and the monumental leadership transition that's taking place next year, stability is going to be an uphill battle. And then the US. Obama recently expressed his sentiments on forging closer ties to the Asia Pacific region. If he wants to stay true to his word he's suddenly going to have to get way more involved in the discussion process. It's not clear China, South Korea, and Japan are going to be able to reconcile their interests and differences over what to do, and the US has a political stake in ensuring its influence doesn't get edged out either. Oh Obama. Add this to the pile of problems he has to deal with at home. I wonder if he considers Kim's death a Christmas gift or a test from God. Republicans are probably toasting with champagne right now. As for North Korea, it's hard to say what it is going to do next because there's so little known about Kim Jong Un, and also because it's not clear there will be a united front between his supporters and the military. Tactical move to assert authority? Try to continue to remain reclusive or open up to the outside world? How are North Koreans, many of whom can only remember life under Kim and their beloved leader, going to react to a new leader?

And I really wonder how North Korea is going to stay as isolated as it has been--if it's even possible to do so now--with the media frenzy and global leadership trying to decide what their next move will be to respond to this. It's all really interesting. Gaah!

Yasheng Huang on Economic Growth in China and India, TED Talk, July 2011

If you don't have time to watch the video here are the takeaway points:
Infrastructure (roads, highways, buildings) are the result, not guaranteed cause, of economic growth. 
For every authoritarian government that has been economically successful, there has been a matched failure, particularly when it comes to East Asia. 
Human capital is what differentiates China from India when it comes to economic growth.
Economic growth cannot occur without women and economic opportunities for women.

Watching stuff like this makes me miss academia (on the slightest level). I really liked Yasheng Huang's book Capitalism with Chinese Characteristics. The way he approaches economic development and political issues with objectivity and rationality is admirable. If I ever become an academic I would want to do it with the same style and motivation he has.

Anarchy

I read this piece in The Hindu about the Cultural Revolution. If there's moments in history to pick out that best characterize pure anarchy, this would be one of them. Anytime I read about the CR, I'm always amazed by how senseless everything was during this time. It was such a distinct period in China's history, yet there is absolutely no acknowledgement given to it in modern-day China. So eerie.

The Hindu : Arts / Magazine : “People want justice”

The best source I've come across so far addressing the Cultural Revolution is Roderick Macfarquhar's book, Mao's Last Revolution. It's super long, but extremely detailed and reads beautifully, like a story.

My Dad on the Debt Ceiling, Colonel Sanders, and World Population Boom

你不給人家錢, 他們要怎麼做事?

Says my dad as he watches news about the debt ceiling. Basically he's saying that if the debt ceiling isn't raised, how can Obama get things done? I don't know what coming "very close" to an agreement means, but hopefully that's really the case and both parties can stop this political bickering that has dragged for way too long. It's like they're voting down the other side's proposal just for the sake of doing it.

I learned today that Colonel Sanders opened KFC when he lost his restaurant business at age 65 and traversed the country on his social security funds in search of a new business opportunity. That business opportunity is now a nation-wide fried chicken chain and booming in China. I wonder what Colonel Sanders knew or thought about China during his living years. Did he ever imagine the remote possibility that his restaurant would become the literal and symbolic provender of a rising middle class in a country with over 1 billion people?
Anyway, he's my new hero for becoming an entrepreneur at an age when most people retire or just die.

And OMG, the world population is expected to hit 7 billion this year. The developing world, Africa in particular, is expected to contribute 49% of the world's growth while the developed is expected to contribute 3%. Crazy. So...should academics begin studying migration dynamics? Because I have a feeling it's only going to becoming a hotter topic in these next few decades...

Do You Own a Smartphone? You'll Get Far in China.

China's Migrant Workers and Smartphones as Status Symbols

Interesting. I was even more fascinated to discover at the end of the blog post that 90 percent of the world cannot afford a smartphone. Such a staggering statistic when I see my friends all put out their Androids, iPhones, and Blackberries to text someone back, check the score of a game, or google the answer to a question because it's right at their fingertips. Technology may be advancing at lightning quick speed, but it seems to be a very select sliver of the global population who is privileged enough to reap its benefits. Put someone who possesses the know-how to utilize this technology next to someone who probably doesn't even have a mobile phone, and where are you? One possible answer is the Beijing subway.

China Might Bid to Build California's High-Speed Rail

Chinese Built U.S. Rail System. Tell Me How Does It Feel?

Really interesting post from China Law Blog. I remember during Expo when Ahhh-nold (pre-confession of scandalous affairs) came and made an announcement at the Pavilion about working with China to bring high-speed rail technology to California.

I don't think it will happen either, for the reason mentioned. It's too politicized a decision, especially seeing as how Americans' opinion of China has consistently been negative. Politicians campaigning on an anti-China platform would have a field day with this.

Hm...why can't Japan build our HSR? It'd probably be good for their economy too. Shinkansen ftw!

A Harmonious Society Indeed

"The government always talks about ethnic harmony, but why do we feel so oppressed?"

The harder you push down on a spring, the more it will recoil in your face when you release it.

Forced assimilation. A paradoxical phrase?

New York Times Lens Project: Carolyn Drake and Xinjiang

http://lens.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/04/04/in-xinjiang-exploring-a-changing-story/

Another amazing photographic project. Carolyn Drake traveled through Central Asia and Xinjiang and documented part of her latter trip here. The photos that struck me the most were the ones showing demolitions of Kashgar. Literally, an entire culture is being wiped out within China's borders. When I was in Shanghai, there were a chain of Lanzhou restaurants run by ethnic Uyghurs who had traveled to the city from their hometowns. It's indicative of a broader trend that's happening in Xinjiang--human migration out of the area to more sustainable economic opportunities in China's booming regions. They're leaving behind their homes, their way of life, their cultural roots, because life in Shanghai and the urban centers are much different. By the time I am able to travel to West China (if I can get past all the government-imposed travel restrictions), there will be no Xinjiang as we currently know it.