The international relations nerd in me totally reared its head once I found out Kim Jong Il had died. The play by play can be found here. I'm sure all the people in my graduate program are talking about it like normal people talk about football on Sunday. Even before the breaking news, what would happen to the Korean peninsula was a hot topic of discussion. Stock markets in Asia are all in the red. Nikkei, Straits Times, Hang Seng. No one knows what's going to happen. I'm sure the North Korean leadership itself doesn't even know what's going to happen. What's the US going to say? How's China going to react? What's South Korea's next move going to be? You can't really rule out any scenario, though I do think there are some situations that are less likely than others. I think the first thing the South Korea government is going to do is make sure all the defensive bases are covered--protecting against threats like cyber attacks, military attacks, and pretty soon, managing the potential refugee crisis. China is probably worried about the same thing. Actually China's probably super nervous right now. With all the toppling of dictatorships this year, and the monumental leadership transition that's taking place next year, stability is going to be an uphill battle. And then the US. Obama recently expressed his sentiments on forging closer ties to the Asia Pacific region. If he wants to stay true to his word he's suddenly going to have to get way more involved in the discussion process. It's not clear China, South Korea, and Japan are going to be able to reconcile their interests and differences over what to do, and the US has a political stake in ensuring its influence doesn't get edged out either. Oh Obama. Add this to the pile of problems he has to deal with at home. I wonder if he considers Kim's death a Christmas gift or a test from God. Republicans are probably toasting with champagne right now. As for North Korea, it's hard to say what it is going to do next because there's so little known about Kim Jong Un, and also because it's not clear there will be a united front between his supporters and the military. Tactical move to assert authority? Try to continue to remain reclusive or open up to the outside world? How are North Koreans, many of whom can only remember life under Kim and their beloved leader, going to react to a new leader?
And I really wonder how North Korea is going to stay as isolated as it has been--if it's even possible to do so now--with the media frenzy and global leadership trying to decide what their next move will be to respond to this. It's all really interesting. Gaah!
